IAB study finds AI has not been a job killer in Germany so far

Artificial intelligence has so far not triggered the widespread job losses many feared in Germany, according to a study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the research arm of the country's Federal Employment Agency. Findings reported on 14 October 2026 show that since 2022, employment in occupations the researchers classify as highly exposed to AI has actually developed more favourably than in less exposed ones. That result, however, holds only for workers aged 30 and above.

Among 30- to 39-year-olds, employment growth in AI-exposed occupations outpaced that of less exposed jobs by almost 6 percentage points, the IAB found. For workers aged 40 to 64 the gap was around 5 points. The picture reverses slightly for those aged 20 to 29: full-time employment in heavily exposed occupations fell 1.2 percentage points more than in less exposed ones, although the institute stresses the link is not yet statistically significant.

The economy weighs more than AI

The IAB attributes the tough market for career starters mainly to Germany's weak economy. IAB researcher Oliver Schlenker said the economic slump of recent years has been the main driver of falling youth employment, with AI likely playing only a minor role overall. Positions held by young workers are generally especially vulnerable to economic cycles, the institute noted.

The researchers did flag a possible warning sign. In manufacturing and in occupations that do not typically require a university degree, higher AI exposure among 20- to 29-year-olds coincides with weaker employment trends. Still, IAB deputy director Melanie Arntz said: "Higher AI exposure does not necessarily mean weaker employment development." She added that AI should nonetheless remain on the radar as a factor.

Other data point the same way

The IAB's conclusion matches other assessments of Germany's tech labour market. Digital industry association Bitkom has reported a marked drop in vacancies for IT professionals, which it blames chiefly on the sluggish economy. According to Bitkom, there is no noticeable loss of IT jobs due to AI, and most companies do not expect one.

Job platform Indeed has likewise observed a sharp decline in entry-level postings in IT as well as in other knowledge and office roles. Yet it said the available data does not show that AI caused the slump. Together, the findings suggest that debates over AI and employment cannot be separated from broader economic conditions.